Can Texas, where Republican presidential candidates have won since 1980, become a battleground in the Senate race? That question has drawn national attention as Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico.

CBS News rated the contest a tossup, according to the video. Paxton has President Donald Trump’s backing, while Talarico has built a high-profile campaign in a state that has long favored Republicans.

Economic concerns, candidate controversies, polling, campaign spending and early voting are all shaping the race. A close result could also affect how both parties approach Texas in future elections, including 2028.

The Texas Senate race is testing the state’s Republican strength

Texas remains a Republican stronghold in presidential elections, but the Senate contest is unfolding amid pressure on the party. BBC correspondent Anthony Zurcher said national concerns and local issues are creating challenges for Republicans.

National headwinds are creating pressure for Republicans

Zurcher described the national political climate as unfavorable to Republicans. He pointed to President Trump’s low popularity and rising living costs as concerns affecting voters.

Affordability has become a key issue in Texas, too. When everyday expenses rise, voters may judge the party in power by how well it responds, even in a state with a strong partisan history.

Local issues are complicating Republican support

Some conservatives, the correspondent reported, are concerned about data-center construction in rural areas. These projects have become a point of local debate, adding to the pressure on Republican candidates.

Immigration enforcement in the Rio Grande Valley may also be changing views among some Hispanic voters. Zurcher said some who backed Trump in 2024 are reconsidering their political preferences.

A close contest signals a possible shift

Texas has voted Republican in presidential elections since 1980, making the current Senate race unusual. Yet a close contest would fit a longer-running debate over whether the state is becoming more competitive.

In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within a few hundred thousand votes of defeating Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Zurcher said O’Rourke generally did not lead in polls as Talarico reportedly has in this race.

Paxton and Talarico bring different strengths to the Texas Senate race

The candidates have distinct political profiles and face different risks. Paxton can count on Trump’s support, while Talarico has gained attention through his campaign message and fundraising.

Paxton has Trump’s backing but faces questions about his record

Paxton is Texas attorney general and the Republican Senate nominee. He defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the primary, according to the video.

His close association with Trump has helped him hold support among Republican voters. But Paxton has also faced legal and political controversy: the report says financial-fraud charges against him were dismissed, and members of his own party impeached him over allegations of abuse of power and corruption.

Zurcher said Paxton is divisive, including among conservatives. He also cited fundraising challenges and doubts about Paxton’s appeal beyond his core supporters as possible liabilities.

Talarico’s background and message have drawn attention

Talarico represents Austin in the state House and previously worked as a public-school teacher. He also studied at a seminary, and he often draws on religious values in his campaign speeches.

The correspondent described him as an effective campaigner and fundraiser. That has helped him respond to the large volume of advertising aimed at his record and views.

Campaign attacks center on culture, religion and industry

The video describes Republican attacks on Talarico that include calling attention to his religion and veganism. It also refers to ads about his faith that the report characterized as AI-generated.

Other attacks have focused on past comments about the beef, oil and gas industries, as well as his support for transgender rights. These are campaign portrayals and criticisms, not independent proof of the claims made in ads.

Economic worries and checks and balances shape voter views

Interviews in the video show how national politics meets daily concerns. Voters spoke about prices, responsibility and the role Congress should play when one party controls the White House.

Voters point to higher prices

One voter called gas too expensive, while another said groceries cost too much. A voter also cited avocados priced at 65 to 85 cents each, compared with 25 to 35 cents in the past.

One person blamed the president for costs, saying that what is within the administration’s control is his responsibility. That comment reflects the voter’s view, not proof of what caused price increases.

Some Trump supporters want congressional oversight

A Trump supporter told the interviewer that Congress needs “checks and balances.” The voter added that a healthy challenge is good for the country.

That view shows how a person can support a president while still wanting lawmakers to scrutinize his policies. It also gives candidates a chance to speak to voters who value oversight across party lines.

Compare campaign promises with local costs

Affordability concerns are part of the national headwinds Zurcher described for Republicans. For voters, broad economic claims matter most when they connect to costs such as fuel and food.

As you compare candidates, look at their stated plans for household costs and local concerns. Keep voter opinions about who is to blame separate from evidence about the causes of price changes.

Polls, fundraising and early voting draw national attention

The figures in the video show why the contest has attracted interest well beyond Texas. They point to a competitive race, but none can settle the outcome on its own.

Polls show a tight Senate contest

Zurcher said Talarico had held a small but consistent lead in polls over several months. CBS News rated the contest a tossup, and the video also described the governor’s race as competitive, with Republican incumbent Greg Abbott facing Democrat Gina Hinojosa.

A narrow polling lead is not a prediction. Before comparing polls, check when they were conducted, how many people they surveyed and how the pollsters gathered responses.

Campaign spending makes the race a national investment

The video reported that Elon Musk donated more than $150 million to Paxton in October. It also said Talarico’s campaign raised $64 million in the third quarter of 2026, which the report described as a record for a U.S. Senate candidate.

Those figures show the scale of attention and money surrounding the race. They do not show how voters will cast their ballots, and fundraising totals alone can’t predict a winner.

Early voting has already drawn millions

Millions of Texans had voted before Election Day, according to the video. Some estimates said close to 70% of the expected ballots had been cast during the first four days of early voting.

That is a measure of participation, not candidate support. Early-vote totals do not, by themselves, reveal which candidate is ahead.

A close Texas Senate race could change future campaign plans

Zurcher said even Republican strategists saw signs that something had changed in Texas. The result could shape how both parties spend time and money in the state, though one Senate race can’t settle its long-term political direction.

A narrow margin could draw more Democratic investment

If Talarico wins, Democrats could be encouraged to put more money into Texas in future elections. The correspondent said some strategists expected a close result alone to show Democrats how competitive the state may be.

A Paxton win could still leave both parties watching the margin. How close the race is may matter for future campaign plans, even if the winner is clear.

A Texas battleground would affect presidential strategy

If Texas becomes more competitive in a presidential race, Republicans may have to commit more resources there. That could change where campaigns spend their time and money.

Texas has long been central to Republican presidential hopes. But one Senate contest, even a close one, would not prove the state has permanently shifted.

Conclusion

The Texas Senate race is tight amid concerns about living costs, questions about the candidates, close polling and unusually large campaign spending. Early voting has been heavy, but it does not show who will win.

Watch the final vote margin, turnout and down-ballot results before drawing conclusions about Texas’s political future. Together, those results will offer a clearer picture of whether the state is becoming a lasting battleground.